Xbox 360 Shortfall? Xbox 360 vs. Playstation 3 vs. Nintendo Revolution (sorta)

1. Not enough Xbox 360s?
   
2. XBox 360 beta dev kits are out
   
3. Fable: The Lost Chapters coming to Xbox
   
4. Xbox vs. Playstation 3 vs. Nintendo Revolution
   
5. Who's showing the most Xbox 360 love?
   

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NEWS:
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1. Not enough Xbox 360s?
   
   
   
   • So, GameSpot is running a story about the rumor of Xbox 360s running out on the pre-order front. Rumors came from information saying multiple GameStops and EBGames weren't taking anymore pre-orders.
     
   • So I went to a local GameStop to get the skinny. GameStop has indeed sold out of its first-week allotment of consoles (as set by corporate HQ). The second allotment is set for a week later. So, yeah, I dropped $50 to preorder the bad boy, in the hope that there will be extra consoles in the first allotment, and I'll get one early to play with and blab about.
     
   • The nice chatty GameStop clerk let me know that getting an early console is likely, since "unlike EBGames, GameStop doesn't oversell on pre-orders" (EBGames oversold pre-orders of the Nintendo DS by as much as a third in many stores). The problem is GameStop just bought EBGames, which will be finalized this fall, and it'll be one pre-order bucket -- which means the 360s could still be oversold.
     
   • The $50 pre-order is just insurance for me, though, since it's fully refundable. When it gets closer to Nov., I'm going to buy the console at the place that has the best launch promotion going (usually Best Buy). GameStop and EBGames are not taking online pre-orders, and Amazon, Circuit City, and Best Buy have not announced pre-order plans.
     
   
   
   
2. XBox 360 beta dev kits are out
   
   
   
   • Developers finally got beta dev kits last week, and given how impressive E3 demos were on the alpha kits, I'm curious to hear developer feedback over the next few weeks.
     
   
   
   
3. Fable: The Lost Chapters coming to Xbox
   
   
   
   • OK, Xbox Fable owners have been in a bit of a tizzy since finding out a bunch of the content for the game that was cut has been re-added, cleaned up, and bolstered with new content -- for the PC version of the game releasing in September. Turns out Xbox owners are going to get the same love this fall -- at a $19.99 Platinum Hits price point. That's showing love to the faithful, Microsoft.
     
   
   
   
4. Xbox vs. Playstation 3 vs. Nintendo Revolution
   
   
   
   • No, this isn't yet the exhaustive, head-to-head comparison I keep promising. Honestly, it's little more than a clever and not-so-thinly-concealed teaser to get my blog picked up by multiple search engines.
     
   • The truth is the all three consoles (with a "maybe" on the Nintendo front) are going to be freaking powerful, blow anything currently out of the water, and are going to be a beast for developers to maximize (with the possible exception of Team Ninja's Itagaki), for 4-6 years out.
     
   • Which leaves the short-term differentiation in 3 key areas:
     
     
     
     • Console exclusivity -- From a next-gen perspective, Microsoft by definition gets next-gen exclusivity for 6+ months. Sony is poo-pooing this (pseudo-scatalogical references are sooo funny!) by saying developers/publishers won't be able to produce anything impressive for the 360 in the first iteration of games. In doing so, they're snubbing these folks -- which they argbuably wouldn't do if they weren't a such a strong first-party developer/publisher (but hey, they're no Nintendo). More to poke holes, though, is the fact that 6 months is enough time for the first, second, and possibly third big waves of "big games" to hit (think the "Christmas in March" we had this year).
       
     • Marketing -- Ok, I dunno if it's successful, yet, but I'm impressed that Microsoft is doing such an aggressive, varied and different marketing campaign this time around, which shows they're either serious, learning, or willing to risk. Bill Gates has said the Xbox 360 can own the living room, but you can't market it as such -- you have to get it into the house as a games machine, and then make it easy to own the house. The've done a good job so far with MTV kickoffs and J Allard's Moby-esque makeover (though he's still nowhere near as cool as Moby). Sony's marketing is pretty much, well, the same -- badmouth the competition, and try to create the perception that the next generation doesn't start until Sony launches.
       
     • Services -- OK, arguably, here's where Microsoft shines. Between a recharged Xbox Live, solidifying "this-gen" pilot offerings (Xbox Arcade, voice chat, messaging, Media Center Extender, and video), and offering new services (Xbox marketplace), M$ is giving Sony reason to try to smear them.
       
     
     
   • Possibly more importantly, there a few parts of the console race the big three don't want to win:
     
     
     
     • Most expensive console -- Microsoft says the Xbox 360 will be "in the neighborhood of" $300 -- which has most analysts saying $299, with a few naysayers saying $349. Sony's console is expected to cost between $399 and $499.
       
     • Biggest loss -- Microsoft takes a loss on the current Xbox. They've made a decision to do that, and since the Xbox sits in their Home Entertainment division, the lost is absorbable. Sony has been badmouthing Microsoft's "bad business model". However, analysts are saying the PlayStation 3 is going to cost approximately $474 per console to manufacture. While Microsoft's FY05 and FY06 losses for the new console look like they'll total in the hundreds of millions, analysts are saying Sony's losses on the PS3 will exceed $1 billion -- in the remainder of the fiscal year that sees the PS3 launch. I know everybody does it, but I hate hypocrisy ...
       
     • Most features dropped -- This is the PR nightmare that can kill good marketing. People are badmouthing Microsoft's decision to not include next-gen optical (HD-DVD or Blu-Ray), while Sony has announced they're including their self-backed Blu-Ray standrad. Microsoft's reasoning is strong: The standards haven't been ironed out, they don't want to "pick wrong", and adding next-gen optical is expensive. However, both J Allard and Robbie Bach have said they have a next-gen optical strategy, and it's built into the support of the Xbox 360. And there's that who VHS (JVC) vs. Betamax (Sony) thing. Sony, on the other hand, has a consistent industry record of "promise a lot, drop a lot". They did this with the PlayStation 2 ("Emotion Engine"? BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!), but really took it to the next level with PSX (which is more a precursor to the PS3 than is the PS2) with dropped features and a botched rollout that made it a failure in Japan, and unreleasable in the US. And this week they announced they've officially dropped the promised PS3 router functionality, "due to the expense of its inclusion". Dunno how they're going to use the 3 gigabit ethernet ports, or if those are going to get dropped, too ...
       
     
     
   
   
   
5. Who's showing the most Xbox 360 love?
   
   
   
   • Nope, it's not Microsoft.
     
   • Actually, Sega went whole-hog at E3, with multiple playable demos, original IP, big-gun potential sleepers like Condemned: Criminal Origins, and recent announcements of traditional Sega IP being resurrected for next-gen. They're not only eager to shake off their ill-fated attachment to the DreamCast (which was better than Sony, dammit!), but showing a lot of love to the stateside market, which is a bit of a change for them.
     
   • Midway got some initial "bad press" for supposedly not supporting the Xbox 360 at launch. They fact of the matter is they're working on at least 7 titles for the 360 that will launch between November and Paril (probably). With new franchises like Area 51 (you know there's going to be a sequel), Psi-Ops, Blitz, and The Suffering, I'm a big fan of big companies that innovate in a (currently) largely originality averse market.