Commentary: The state of Next-Gen gaming in Holiday 2006

Microsoft launched first in the next-gen wars, and though Sony would like to discredit the launch (and it had a lot o' problems), First Advantage is a huge factor in who "wins" this round, and by delaying their console until this fall, Sony gives its competition a full year of First Advantage.

And though the Xbox 360 had a disappointing launch roster (both First Party, and with Third Party publishers releasing sub-par versions of current-gen games), the Spring, Summer, Fall, and Holiday release rosters should give gamers some compelling reasons to go Xbox.

Throw in a compelling Xbox 360 exclusive (say, Gears of War) and the maybe first of the 360's price drops to coincide with the launch of the PS3, and Sony may find itself a bit stunned at launch time.

In addition, with the PlayStation 3 pushed to fall, it will be competing with the Nintendo launch of the Revolution. Though Nintendo is adamant they're not competing in the same space in the next round with Microsoft and Sony, the reality is they'll be competing for the same consumer spending. And if Sony includes one or more compelling platformers, the perception could be the PS3 serves the gaming tastes of the whole family, whereas the Revolution may only serve kiddies. Further, if it looks as though Microsoft and Sony are likely to get the same cross-platform titles, Consumers may opt to choose between those two platforms, rather than consider the Revolution. The dark horse is Iwata's claims of "unique and compelling features" that "break down the barriers" between gaming and non-gaming family members. E3 will be the launch platform for these features.

Microsoft's rumored handheld could erode Sony's market, and in a year where the Xbox 360 could see its first price drop, with compeling enough integration features, could be purchased at the same time a 360 is purchased -- significantly increasing revenue. It'll be interesting to see if Sony does anything innovative/gotta-have between the PSP and PS3.

Sony, however, has a much more compelling possible launch title roster, which is further strengthened by (probably) more stable backwards compatibility, and a release of new PS2 titles (e.g. God of War 2) that will be playable on the PS3.

That said, analysts (all but one), say Microsoft is likely to lead this round until either 2008 or 2010.

I hope to update these ramblings after this may's E3, which looks to be one of the better ones in a while.

It's a good time to be a gamer.