Countdown to the new consoles

Stateside, the Sony PlayStation 3 and Nintendo Wii next-gen consoles lunch this week -- so how does the landscape look?

Sony launches this Thursday (November 17), and Nintendo's picked an odd Sunday release (November 19).

A brief survey of reatailers and national Sunday newspaper advertisements shows some interesting stuff.

First off, Nintendo's Wii Sunday date may have caused issues for promotions. Some of the big guns don't even have a Wii presence in yesterday's ads, perhaps planning to wait for mid-week adverts (but with far lower circulation) or next Sunday's promotions (which may be too late).

Also, consider the entrenched competition. Microsoft's Xbox 360 has around 6 million units deployed, compared to Nintendo's 4 million unit projection and Sony's sub-million units (which to be fair, is the same as last year's Xbox 360 rollout, due to unforseen shortages and deployment issues).

As far as the big retail video game hardware movers, Sony has the biggest showing, with 3, 2, and 1 pages in the Best Buy, Circuit City, and Hastings Sunday adds (including covers). They also have a small showing in Target and Wal-Mart (who often doesn't do a Sunday showing at all). Oddly, they have no showing at Toys "r" us.

Nintendo, on the other hand, has a strong showing at Toys "r" us, and a decent presence in the Wal-Mart add. Strikingly, they don't show up at all in circulars from Best Buy, Circuit City, Target, or Hastings (though for Hastings, the Xbox 360 wasn't included, either).

Microsoft's not resting on its entrenched laurels, either. Starting on November 22 (and announced last week), you'll be able to download movies and TV episodes on your Xbox 360 (Sony says they'll do something similar). Last week, Microsoft shipped the Xbox 360 HD DVD peripheral, which has a strong showing so far in adverts and on the street. This further cements the Xbox 360 as an alternative to the PS3 and its Blu-ray hi-definition video functionality -- but with a much larger stable of games, and a proven games library. Microsoft also has the front page for Target, and their Toys "r" us promotional bundle includes Viva Pinata and Cars, making the package an attractive kiddie alternative to the Wii.

And don't miss this subtle bit of channel obfuscation genius from Microsoft -- the ZUNE. Their answer to Apple's video iPod, the $250 audio/video player will launch Tuesday (November 14th) and will cut into Apple's iPod and Sony's PSP markets in particular, but also takes consumer dollars away that could be spent on the PS3 and/or Wii. Don't tell me this is coincidental.

I do think Microsoft missed an opportunity this Sunday to hype the hell out of Gears of War again. The title is arguably a console seller, so they could have taken some steam out of competitor's launches this week by refreshing that marketing (hype for "Emergence Day" was tepid at best).

OK, so I've summed up the Sunday ads for you slackers -- so what?

Here's what -- Microsoft is going to have a good holiday, and I think Nintendo wiill, too. Sony's going to have a rough go of it.

Though Sony spent the marketing dollars for the launch, their presales are oversold and they'll likely run out of product; time will tell if this demand vibe will make it the "must-have" Christmas gadget into and beyond the holiday (it worked for the 360 last year). Nintendo will do fine, and may have the best balance of demand/supply of the 3. Microsoft, though labeled by detractors as "last year's tech", is still next-gen, and has a more robust (and proven, and expanding) product and service base, and though I don't expect supply to be a problem, I think they'll sell through handsomely this season.

To see how the PS3 launch went in Japan, check out this GameSpot article.