Monday, February 26, 2007

Improving XBLA

A lot of folks have been beating up on Microsoft's Xbox Live Arcade (XBLA) lately (1UP.com, Evil Avatar, etc.).

So, what's up, and what needs fixing?

In a nutshell, folks are upset about the quality and lack of XBLA titles. This is looking far worse in the context of Sony's Online network and Nintendo's Virtual Console (VC), where they're releasing 2-3 quality games per week.

In practicality, this is how it sometimes plays out:
Nintendo owners: "Wiiiii! Wii just got 'Zelda'!"

360 owners: "WTF? Root Beer Tapper?"
And while I'm a 360 owner and Microsoft / XBLA fan, I'm also not just a gamer -- I'm an enterprise services manager, which has required (at multiple times) my management of portfolio items at the domestic and international level. So I have some background in this kind of stuff (though this is obviously for a different vertical market, and a lightweight version of a formal portfolio refresh proposal, because, um, it's free).

First, to get a couple of things out of the way.

I would argue the recent exodus of Microsoft XBLA execs Ross Erickson and Greg Canessa is not that big of a deal. Shifts at that level happen on a regular basis, and while it may have some impact (or be borne from) XBLA heartburn, I don't think it's causitive or directly resultative.

Secondly, portfolio management, and even the development of "just" XBLA games, is not trivial. We're talking a 6-9 month lead time (at least). That said, I'm not letting Microsoft off the hook, because the competition got their XBLA-equivalents right.

So, what to do?

Stuff like Alien Hominid HD (this Wednesday!) will do wonders (and Castle Crashers?)

Here are some specific things that will help robustify the portfolio offerings:

1. Classics should be carefully assessed, in case they should be ancillary, rather than primary, releases
I'm a fan of the classics, but games that I already got to play a la Midway Classics (vol. 1 and 2) on the original Xbox should be ancillary, not primary releases. Don't get me wrong; I'm
grateful for things like multiplayer live Gauntlet, but the reviews for the games as a whole speak for themselves.

2. More high quality, original marquee games
Things from Rare and Electronic Arts (Boom Boom Rocket) will likely help in this area, but the caveat is to not leave smaller developers out in the cold.

3. Formalize the Indie/XNA Express opportunity
I'm not saying Indies should necessarily drive XBLA, but the XNA Creator's Club is a serious differentiating factor for the Xbox 360, and the recent Xbox Live Marketplace content on this is encouraging.

Other opportunities in this area include options like the following:
  • Opening up the platform to include peer payments (maybe even analogous to the "Donate with PayPal" option in the PC ShareWare world)
  • Tiered (peer) voting that advances XBLA/XNA Express games into "regular XBLAnd", or to maybe the upper tier of games "available to all XBLA Creator club folks" (as opposed to Friends list participants), or to a new category

Cream rises to the top.

4. Find Microsoft's differentiating catalog
Nintendo is doing quite a bit with Sega, Hudson, and (oh yeah) Nintendo catalogs, so Microsoft needs to reward Xbox 360 love from companies such as Capcom, who have games like Lost Planet and Dead Rising, and tremendous back-catalog

5. Translate upright arcade games to XBLA
This is a new area to mine, with arguable higher quality graphics and more challenging gameplay. Think Strider, Golden Ax (could precede Secret Level's refresh of the franchise this year), and so on.

6. Aim for the lucrative, semi-niche markets
As an example, At Comic-Con this year, announce Cadillacs and Dinosaurs; Captain America and the Avengers (arcade, not SNES); Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (arcade, not SNES; and this is probably in the pipe already); The Punisher
(1993 arcade). Titles would be dependent on success numbers for the arcade at the time,
married to current franchise data.

7. Leverage the license whores
OK, this sounds derogatory, and I genuinely love them, but Marvel is amazing. And they have 3 theater films and between 2-6 direct-to-DVD properties hitting this year. "They'll work with virtually anyone" (go to a Wal-Mart and tell me I'm wrong).

8. More adventure games
I'm doing more research on this, and though it seems counter to XBLA's "jump-in / jump-out" philosophy, I'm finding significant overlap between the casual and adventure gamer demographics.

9. Don't worry about cannibalizing
I think there's a fear that too many Xbox Live Arcade titles will take sales away from retail offerings. I think it's unfounded.

If that's a concern, Microsoft should perhaps be more concerned with their 50-plus downloadable demos taking away from retail sales. In practicality, I think an abundance of casual games opens hardware sales and repeated online sales to a new demographic, the demos may cause them to get into retail games, and the hardcore will play everything.

Summary
I realize there are other factors of which I'm not aware (maybe there are contractual obligations with Digital Eclipse to do a certain number of games, etc.). And this is a much smaller note and lacks the data I'd normally put into a portfolio refresh proposal.

But like I said, it's free.

I actually suspect XBLA will see the fruition of a portfolio change very shortly. Let's see how many of my ideas they pick up (or how many the competition picks up).

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